Ralph Wanger

September 19th, 2008

Quotes

“An attractive investment area must have favorable characteristics that should last five years or longer.”

“Chances are, things have changed enough so that whatever made you a success thirty years ago doesn’t work anymore. I think that by concentrating on smaller companies, you improve your chances of catching the next wave.”

“If you believe you or anyone else has a system that can predict the future of the stock market, the joke is on you.”

“Since the Industrial Revolution began, going downstream – investing in businesses that will benefit from new technology rather than investing in the technology companies themselves – has often been the smarter strategy.”

– Ralph Wanger

John Templeton

July 9th, 2008

“Rejecting technical analysis as a method for investing, Templeton says, “You must be a fundamentalist to be really successful in the market.”

“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.”

“If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”
“When asked about living and working in the Bahamas during his management of the Templeton Group, Templeton replied, “I’ve found my results for investment clients were far better here than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza. When you’re in Manhattan, it’s much more difficult to go opposite the crowd.”

– John Templeton

Fourth Law of Motion

May 2nd, 2008

“Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing. He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later; ‘I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.’ If he had not been traumatized by the loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.”

— Warren Buffett

Risk Control

April 3rd, 2008

“If you’re really poor at what you do, maybe there’s a 9% chance that you’ll have a problem. If you’re really good, maybe there’s a 3% chance. If you’re on a beach and a tsunami hits, you’ll drown whether you’re a small child or an Olympic swimmer. Some things will go bad no matter how good you are.”

“The best traders are not right more than they are wrong. They are quick adjusters. They are better at getting right when they are wrong.”

Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs

A Short History of Troubled Investment Bank Sales

March 16th, 2008

A Short History of Troubled Investment Bank Sales
Posted by Heidi Moore

Bear Stearns isn’t the first troubled investment bank to seek a buyer, and it likely won’t be the last. Deal Journal took a not-so-random walk with Wall Street’s securities firms and how they fared when trouble hit them.

Drexel Burnham Lambert: Drexel was hit by the unexpected downturn in the junk-bond market in the late 1980s, just as Bear Stearns has been hit by the downturn in the subprime-mortgage markets. Drexel, like Bear, also faced rumors of a liquidity squeeze. In 1989, Drexel’s troubles caused it to post the first operating loss in its 54-year history; in 2007 Bear posted the first loss in its 83-year history.

Then there is the market karma: Drexel racked up many resentful counterparties and such powerful enemies as former Dillon Read banker Nicholas Brady, who later became Treasury Secretary. Similarly, many in the trading community were resentful that Bear didn’t put money into its two collapsed hedge funds last year—and that Bear refused to pitch in on the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. Drexel faced a dark future when its civil liabilities and its problems with solvency scared buyers away, and the Fed rejected Drexel’s own restructuring plan for its business. Mr. Brady, who eventually became Treasury Secretary, rejected a government bailout of the firm and advised Drexel to file for bankruptcy protection.

Kidder Peabody: One of the vaunted securities firms of the Northeast, Kidder Peabody was bought by General Electric in 1986. Thereafter, it was plagued by scandals, including insider-trading cases involving Martin Siegel, head of arbitrage Richard Wigton (charges were later dropped), and trader Joseph Jett (who a judge originally found not guilty of securities fraud but, in 2004, the SEC reversed that decision and upheld the charges). Jett wrote a book about his experiences, “Black and White On Wall Street: The Untold Story of the Man Wrongly Accused of Bringing Down Kidder Peabody.” In 1994, General Electric sold Kidder to PaineWebber for $70 million. That was the effective death of the Kidder Peabody legacy; the 129-year-old PaineWebber was sold to UBS.

Salomon Brothers: The firm was forced to pay a huge regulatory fine for allegedly submitting false bids on Treasury bonds. Warren Buffett took over the firm for 10 months and saved Salomon when it was briefly banned from trading Treasurys by intervening with regulators. Mr. Buffett later said he believed Salomon might have gone bankrupt and brought the world’s financial system to a standstill—as many believe might happen were Bear to fall. Buffett sold Salomon to Sanford I. Weill of Travelers Group for $9 billion. Salomon’s name survived for a time as Salomon Smith Barney. Though some veterans still work there, they have been subsumed into Citigroup’s investment bank.

Ben Graham: His Life and Legacy

November 29th, 2007

Who was Benjamin Graham, and why is he worth listening to?

Graham was not just one of the best investors of all time; he remains far and away the greatest thinker about investing who ever lived. As a money manager and a finance professor at Columbia Business School, Graham was a teacher, mentor and hero to such investing giants as Sir John Templeton, William Ruane of the Sequoia Fund, and Charles Munger and Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett has said: “Ben had more influence on me than any person except my father…. Graham was the smartest man I ever knew.”

What accounts for Graham’s influence and innovation? Put simply, by any measure he was one of the most brilliant men of the 20th century. Graham’s genius manifested itself on at least five fronts:

• as an intellectual
• as a financier
• as a psychologist
• as an historian
• as a writer

As an intellectual, Graham graduated second in his class at Columbia and, before the end of his senior year, was offered faculty positions in three different departments: English, Greek and Latin, and mathematics. (He was all of 20 years old.) Later, Graham came up with several of the key ideas behind the Bretton Woods agreement that modernized the global financial system. He also patented an improved slide rule, wrote a Broadway play and taught himself Spanish so he could translate a major Uruguayan novel, Mario Benedetti’s The Truce, into English. (By the end of his life, Graham knew at least seven languages.) But Graham was not just smart: he was wise. His book-learning and quantitative genius were always tempered by prudence and common sense.

As a financier, Graham amassed one of the best track records in the history of investing, outperforming the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index by at least 2.5 percentage points annually for a period of more than 20 years. Graham survived the Great Crash of 1929 and, for the rest of his career, issued timely warnings about overvalued markets (including the severe collapse in 1973-1974). He also helped restructure GEICO Corp. and was a fearless advocate for better corporate governance, going so far as to take on the Rockefeller family by shaking up their sheltered interest in the Northern Pipe Line Co.

As a psychologist, Graham cast a bright spotlight on human behavior, revealing subtleties and contradictions that anticipated the findings of Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman. Throughout his writings, Graham is not concerned with how people ought to act; instead, he focuses on how they actually behave in the real world. All his recommendations are based not just on what people should do, but on what they can do. Graham knew that self-control and self-knowledge are the keys to successful investing. In his words, “The investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.” If you read nothing but Chapters 1, 8, and 20 of The Intelligent Investor, you can get off the self-destructive path that sends so many people astray in their financial lives.

As a historian, Graham had a mastery of the facts about everything and everyone that had come before him. The razor of his logic, sharpened by repeated readings of Aristotle and Plato, made mincemeat out of contemporaries who argued that “valuations don’t matter” or that “you can’t overpay for a great stock.” History taught Graham that the financial markets obey fundamental laws as irrevocable as Newton’s laws of thermodynamics. Throughout his books, Graham shows that regression to the mean — what goes up must come down, and what goes way up must come down even harder — is the first law of financial physics. Graham’s commanding knowledge of history made him a formidable prophet, since the best way to predict the financial future is simply to understand the past. To avoid disastrous losses in the 2000-2002 bear market, you needed only to have read and understood Graham’s warnings about past bubbles. And there’s no better way to brace yourself against the booms and busts of the future than by learning what Graham has to say.

As a writer, Graham was a master of formal but clear and classic prose. Large parts of The Intelligent Investor are set up as compare-and-contrast exercises. The distinctions that Graham draws between stocks and companies, price and value, investment and speculation, “projection” and “protection,” show how to think about the big picture. And his pairing of stocks — one glamorous and overpriced, the other stodgy and cheap — show how to analyze individual investments. Finally, Graham’s imaginative brilliance shines forth in his metaphor of “Mr. Market,” the manic-depressive neighbor who remains the single best image ever devised for explaining how the stock market really works.

Although Graham was born in 1894 and died in 1976, the proofs continue to pile up with the passage of the years: Graham was not just the greatest investing mind of his time, but he remains the greatest investing mind of all time. Every investor, no matter how much or little you know, can benefit from Graham’s ideas and from what Warren Buffett calls “the best book about investing ever written.”

– Jason Zweig, “Benjamin Graham,”

Behavioral Finance

October 17th, 2007

Financial markets have alternated between booms and busts for over two hundred years. Each generation falls prey to the fads, fallacies, enthusiasms, and stories of its era, most often when the market is at or near the end of one cycle and the beginning of the next. The problem is, investors make decisions based on information they learned about as it unfolded — information that proves nearly useless in the market’s next phase. The explains why investors so predictably shun stocks and bonds near market bottoms but buy with abandon near market tops. It seems each generation is amused by the folly of those that preceded it, while remaining totally ignorant of its own.

– Behavioral Finance, James Montier

Behavioral Finance

October 17th, 2007

This is the world of behavioral finance, a world in which human emotions rule, logic has its place, but markets are moved as much by psychological factors as by information from corporate balance sheets…The models of classical finance are fatally flawed. They fail to produce predictions that are even vaguely close to the outcomes we observe in real financial markets….Of course, new we need some understanding of what causes markets to deviate from their fundamental value. The answer quite simply is human behavior.

– Behavioral Finance, James Montier

Long-term Success

September 18th, 2007

I don’t think it’s the pathway to long-term success, watching CNBC and checking your account every day. What it leads to is this emotional imbalance that you’ve created for yourself. If you are sage, you can do that. But if you are an immature investor and you look at it every day, you just become hyper about it.

– CHARLES SCHWAB

Market Experts

September 18th, 2007

If stock market experts were so expert, they would be buying stock, not selling advice.

– NORMAN AUGUSTINE, CEO of U.S. Lockheed Martine